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Nov 1, 2012
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president barack obama got back to the campaign trail today. initial opinion polls appear to give high marks for the president's handling of the storm crisis with even republican voters praising his quick response. >> for more, let's turn now to our representative who was in new york for the storm and is now following cleanup efforts. massive destruction in the region, but from what you've seen, how are new yorkers coping? >> i have just been to a neighborhood in brooklyn where the storm has been really hitting hard the people there. they were just desperate. some were crying. when you walk through the streets, you could see post a snap into the houses by the wind and water. it is terrible. people try to clean up their things. you can see furniture living outside, the couches, tv's, clothes. everything has been destroyed, and people just do not know what to do. it will take a long time to clean up. some cops are even stationed at gas stations because there have been fights. there is a--- a gas shortage. some parts still did not have any electri
president barack obama got back to the campaign trail today. initial opinion polls appear to give high marks for the president's handling of the storm crisis with even republican voters praising his quick response. >> for more, let's turn now to our representative who was in new york for the storm and is now following cleanup efforts. massive destruction in the region, but from what you've seen, how are new yorkers coping? >> i have just been to a neighborhood in brooklyn where the...
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Nov 1, 2012
11/12
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many wealthy are not concerned about their benefits but are instead word about the economy. >> obama has had four years and really has not come up with anything to show the people that he did better than before, than the administration we had before, so i figure it is time for a change. >> if the majority of retirees share this view on election day, romney may take florida, an important part of winning the election. >> in a minute, we will look at unemployment in europe. >> first, other stories making headlines around the world. >> tensions are high in the tunisian capital after clashes between police and salafist muslims left italy will people dead. >> russia has launched a rocket from the steppes of kazakhstan, headed for the international space station. the rocket is carrying a spacecraft loaded with supplies including hardware, fuel, and water. >> following the resignation of former german president christian wulff, opposition leaders are calling for new rules on the president's salary. they say presidents should no longer be entitled to full salary for the rest of their lives if
many wealthy are not concerned about their benefits but are instead word about the economy. >> obama has had four years and really has not come up with anything to show the people that he did better than before, than the administration we had before, so i figure it is time for a change. >> if the majority of retirees share this view on election day, romney may take florida, an important part of winning the election. >> in a minute, we will look at unemployment in europe....
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Nov 2, 2012
11/12
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in recent days, polls showing -obama's narrowing said. again, this morning we are talking about the non- battleground states. we will go to california, on our line for republicans, helen, you are on. caller: good morning. i am a first-time caller. please do not cut me off. host: go ahead. caller: i will be so glad when this election is over. i was raised a republican. my whole entire life, never voted anything but republican. but i tell you what, anyone -- i switched this year, i was born to go independent, but i am going to go for barack obama. anyone that will vote for mitt romney has to be a 100% raist, or have a severe -- a 100% racist or have a severe mental problem. host: are you glad you are not subject to all of the presidential ads and mailings coming and to folks in ohio? caller: i am so glad. and i watched c-span, and the comments that i hear from the people, it is so sad. why do they hate this black president? and one thing i want to make clear. i am not voting for obama because we are black. host: we lost you there. i want to
in recent days, polls showing -obama's narrowing said. again, this morning we are talking about the non- battleground states. we will go to california, on our line for republicans, helen, you are on. caller: good morning. i am a first-time caller. please do not cut me off. host: go ahead. caller: i will be so glad when this election is over. i was raised a republican. my whole entire life, never voted anything but republican. but i tell you what, anyone -- i switched this year, i was born to go...
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Oct 31, 2012
10/12
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what is internal polling showing about how many of those voters president obama could capture? >> i do not want to talk about internal polling, but let me say this, based on what i am seeing, i am very confident the president will have a good night here in new -- here on tuesday. we are working hard to make sure we have every obama supporter out there and out there to vote so we do have a victory. i think it will be closer, closer to the 2004 election when senator kerrey won. i do think president obama will pull it off, because he has such an excellent ground game, and because of these big city issues that are born to the people of new hampshire. we talk about real depth is a reduction, the specifics of his plan, unlike mitt romney to has yet to answer how he will pay for his plan. the people understand you want someone willing to talk about specifics, someone who has a record of cutting taxes for working-class and middle-class people. someone who has a record for cutting taxes for small businesses. the president has signed 18 tax cuts into law for small business people. i thin
what is internal polling showing about how many of those voters president obama could capture? >> i do not want to talk about internal polling, but let me say this, based on what i am seeing, i am very confident the president will have a good night here in new -- here on tuesday. we are working hard to make sure we have every obama supporter out there and out there to vote so we do have a victory. i think it will be closer, closer to the 2004 election when senator kerrey won. i do think...
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Nov 4, 2012
11/12
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there was a poll that came out that said obama was up 55 in iowa. colorado is looking better for the republicans. host: why don't we forget the election and use being -- the polls instead? [laughter] guest: the democrats always have a much higher turnout in the early vote. their machine turns it out. one of the things we have seen among the democrats is that they have been trying to pump the numbers to play the game of who is winning and who is losing where the strategy for republicans is weak turnout the votes for people who are -- we turn out the votes for people who are least likely to vote. voters who have voted in the last four elections will vote in this election. republicans have a 355,000 vote lead in terms of four 5 four voters -- four by four voters. we are looking at better numbers than we have had. guest: if this were 2010, you would have a great point. in the last two elections, 90% of registered voters voted on election day. intensity does not matter as much in a presidential election as it matters now. republicans always do better wit
there was a poll that came out that said obama was up 55 in iowa. colorado is looking better for the republicans. host: why don't we forget the election and use being -- the polls instead? [laughter] guest: the democrats always have a much higher turnout in the early vote. their machine turns it out. one of the things we have seen among the democrats is that they have been trying to pump the numbers to play the game of who is winning and who is losing where the strategy for republicans is weak...
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Oct 29, 2012
10/12
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our last poll, just after the first debate -- is edging up, but obama has a steady lead. it is a democratic-leaning state these days. there has not been an awful lot of campaign activity in terms of action by the candidates. more important advertising -- they have not really targeted the state this year, unlike 2008 and the previous four cycles. host: there is an awful lot of advertising in the separate -- senate race, particularly by tom smith, the republican nominee. your polling shows that race is closer -- senator casey is still holding a lead of seven points over tom smith. what is happening in that race? caller: it is a simple matter of if you spend $17 million of your own money you can get hearing from people. senator caseous a member -- casey is a member of an institution that is not very popular these days, the congress. smith has gained traction just on the strength of his message. introducing himself to voters. that could be one of the surprises on election night. host: let's take this question today is -- two ways -- what can republicans read into the polling
our last poll, just after the first debate -- is edging up, but obama has a steady lead. it is a democratic-leaning state these days. there has not been an awful lot of campaign activity in terms of action by the candidates. more important advertising -- they have not really targeted the state this year, unlike 2008 and the previous four cycles. host: there is an awful lot of advertising in the separate -- senate race, particularly by tom smith, the republican nominee. your polling shows that...
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Oct 29, 2012
10/12
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barack obama, if you look at the polling data, he has built a pretty significant lead among women voters. these are issues women care a lot about. barack obama is directly addressing them, directly saying, if you want your rights as a woman to plan your own life, your rights as a woman, to table to assert yourself, you better vote for me, because mitt romney will rein in those rights. that issue resonates very strongly around iowa. women voters can make a difference in this election. if you look at polling, the voters isong male pretty even. among women voters, barack obama has a pretty strong lead. this election in iowa and in many other states, i think, is going to be a turn out the game. can getan get thei -- who their voters to the polls on election day. barack obama, to say, i have a lead with women voters, so let's make sure we get them out on election day and let's give them a reason to show up. this is what he thinks is the reason women will show up and vote for employer. host: a story in the quad city times -- iowa is the focus of our conversation right now with my glover, a sen
barack obama, if you look at the polling data, he has built a pretty significant lead among women voters. these are issues women care a lot about. barack obama is directly addressing them, directly saying, if you want your rights as a woman to plan your own life, your rights as a woman, to table to assert yourself, you better vote for me, because mitt romney will rein in those rights. that issue resonates very strongly around iowa. women voters can make a difference in this election. if you...
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Oct 30, 2012
10/12
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our poll yesterday found a 47-47 split between romney and obama of unlikely voters. we had had obama with a significant lead at the end of the summer and in the aftermath of the political conventions. but the first debate changed that dramatically as a poll we took a few days afterwards showed. but i think that mr. silver is making a broader point, which is the underlying divisions in the public -- i'm talking about ideological and partisan -- are deeply rooted and it is not true that everybody has made a decision and that the public is totally locked up. but the fundamental contours of the 50-50 split in there country are kind of wired into us right now and that provides some kind of anchor to the polls that i think is consistent with his analysis. host: what about the impact of this storm on polling with only one week to go? guest: we are taking a chose look at this. our most recent poll finished interviewing sun night. -- sunday night and we were working on it yesterdayat this. our most recent poll finished interviewing sun night. -- sunday night and we were worki
our poll yesterday found a 47-47 split between romney and obama of unlikely voters. we had had obama with a significant lead at the end of the summer and in the aftermath of the political conventions. but the first debate changed that dramatically as a poll we took a few days afterwards showed. but i think that mr. silver is making a broader point, which is the underlying divisions in the public -- i'm talking about ideological and partisan -- are deeply rooted and it is not true that everybody...
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Oct 28, 2012
10/12
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barack obama has never gotten more than 49% in any of these polls. i think that is what -- you have to get over 49% to be elected president of the united states. host: give me what county that will be a bellwether on election night. guest: i believe one thing the chairman said. i think chester county is an important county to look at. montgomery county is the most important county to look at. there is no evidence to suggest mitt romney and brought the obama are going to come out of the four caller counties even. when you look at what happened in montgomery county four years ago, barack obama came out of chester county up about 20,000 votes. you will certainly see some tightening this time, but you will see the president come out of the five county area will for at least a 600,000 vote martin, which will help carry him through the rest of the state. -- 600,000 vote margin, which will carry him through the rest of the state. we have a strong democratic team. i think the president will do well in the southeast. as the chairman and knowledge, the southea
barack obama has never gotten more than 49% in any of these polls. i think that is what -- you have to get over 49% to be elected president of the united states. host: give me what county that will be a bellwether on election night. guest: i believe one thing the chairman said. i think chester county is an important county to look at. montgomery county is the most important county to look at. there is no evidence to suggest mitt romney and brought the obama are going to come out of the four...
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Oct 27, 2012
10/12
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and the polling in north carolina still suggests that the president -- that obama care is still not very popular in north carolina although you start taking pieces of that like preexisting conditions and that sort of thing, it becomes various parts of it are more popular with the public. it's been a tough sell in north carolina. i think it's one of the reasons for example in 2010 that the state legislature went republican. it's one of the reasons that democratic congressmen lost his congressional seat here in north carolina. so it's been a tough issue for democrats. i don't think there's any question about that and a good issue for republicans. host: rob christensen talking to us from north carolina. you can read some of his writings at news observer.com. host: what are you going to be watching for on election night in north carolina? guest: the national presidential race is why people are looking at north carolina. but in the state we have -- it's been a battleground -- we have several battlegrounds going on. we have a governor's race going on. north carolina has had 20 years of democra
and the polling in north carolina still suggests that the president -- that obama care is still not very popular in north carolina although you start taking pieces of that like preexisting conditions and that sort of thing, it becomes various parts of it are more popular with the public. it's been a tough sell in north carolina. i think it's one of the reasons for example in 2010 that the state legislature went republican. it's one of the reasons that democratic congressmen lost his...
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Oct 29, 2012
10/12
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the polls are showing that obama is leading the early boat much like he did in 2008. that is an aberration from our part -- previous count. from previous elections before the 2008, typically, republicans won the early voting. we have had such a high volume now and the obama campaign is encouraging their supporters to vote early. we have seen a change in behavior when campaigns can take advantage of early voting to encourage their supporters and mobilize them over a longer period of time. that is was going on on the democrat side. if you look at the numbers, there are more republicans voting early ban in 2008. the romney campaign is not conceding the early vote as the mccain campaign did in 2008. we are seeing greater interest among republicans and we see level increases of democrats and republicans compared to 2008 in early voting. up to this point, when we look at the statistics, most of the people who have voted early so far were people who are very strong partisans and have registered with their local party. in ohio, we have data where we know that people have vote
the polls are showing that obama is leading the early boat much like he did in 2008. that is an aberration from our part -- previous count. from previous elections before the 2008, typically, republicans won the early voting. we have had such a high volume now and the obama campaign is encouraging their supporters to vote early. we have seen a change in behavior when campaigns can take advantage of early voting to encourage their supporters and mobilize them over a longer period of time. that...
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Oct 30, 2012
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host: in 2008, exit polls show that president obama won the hispanic vote in colorado, two- thirds of colorado's hispanic vote that year. it is a big part of the campaign for this election. what about that for gary johnson on the ballot in colorado? guest: he was our governor to the south. he was very enthusiastic on those issues. on the ballot this year is the issue of legalizing marijuana. gary johnson was for the decriminalization of marijuana. i think you'll have some on the fringe of voters, not a libertarian, but others as well that will gravitate toward gary johnson. he does not have the money to get his message out. also, of boulder county, which is a key base for democrats, you have a green party on the ballot. gary johnson will roll become in a distant third, but come in third in colorado. host: we have a democratic caller on the line. caller: i want to know why the congress is not being held accountable for what they're doing. they're holding the contras -- the country up and everybody is blaming obama. he can only do so much. guest: you are seeing the frustration the town
host: in 2008, exit polls show that president obama won the hispanic vote in colorado, two- thirds of colorado's hispanic vote that year. it is a big part of the campaign for this election. what about that for gary johnson on the ballot in colorado? guest: he was our governor to the south. he was very enthusiastic on those issues. on the ballot this year is the issue of legalizing marijuana. gary johnson was for the decriminalization of marijuana. i think you'll have some on the fringe of...
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Oct 29, 2012
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let's listen. >> mentioned the 2.3% in obama's favor. that is because the polls are closing. the latest was this morning showing the race is a dead heat. i feel like the momentum is on our side. i've been at six rallies the last week and a dozen centers around the state and the energy is on our side this year. it's interesting to watch. we were down five or ten points before the debate. after the debate we're dead even and it's moving our way. host: that was on fox yesterday. and here is a story on analysis. it looks at key battleground states. the "washington journal" is taking a look at a number of battleground states this month as we head into the election. later this month we'll look into ohio and later colorado. we'll take one more call from the democrats line. caller: everything is shut down in new york city but i have to make three big points. number one for me is we should not politicized weather t. president, senators, congress, nobody is responsible for the weather, that's number one. so i'm surprised that gove nor went out there and made a statement about collin po
let's listen. >> mentioned the 2.3% in obama's favor. that is because the polls are closing. the latest was this morning showing the race is a dead heat. i feel like the momentum is on our side. i've been at six rallies the last week and a dozen centers around the state and the energy is on our side this year. it's interesting to watch. we were down five or ten points before the debate. after the debate we're dead even and it's moving our way. host: that was on fox yesterday. and here is...
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Oct 31, 2012
10/12
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and then president obama decided to not through his first debate in denver. and after that event, the democrats saw a similar drop in the polls. they saw it across the board. not just with the presidency. but with the house, the senate. this a late moment, some kind of game changing moment like that can have a serious impact still. but since we had two back-to- back, i think even out at the end. but mitt romney was at his lowest moment after the 47% video came out. and obama was at his lowest out to the debate in denver. host: what about the storm. this is the washington times. in game changer. they put sandy as number one. guest: i think of is a good point. i think there is a big risk when any kind of storm bruise. and almost anywhere in the country, american history is complete with mayors and governors who have all snowstorm as badly and ended up losing elections the next year. george w. bush's approval rating never recovered dr. the mishandling of katrina. this is a big risk for obama. his got to show that he was a leader. he has to look like he is engage
and then president obama decided to not through his first debate in denver. and after that event, the democrats saw a similar drop in the polls. they saw it across the board. not just with the presidency. but with the house, the senate. this a late moment, some kind of game changing moment like that can have a serious impact still. but since we had two back-to- back, i think even out at the end. but mitt romney was at his lowest moment after the 47% video came out. and obama was at his lowest...
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Nov 1, 2012
11/12
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if virginia turns out to be 10,000 votes between romney and obama and virgil goode its 25,000 votes, you could make the argument he might have cost mitt romney the state. but otherwise i doubt it. and there is a liberal candidate, jill stein, the green party candidate. i doubt she gets a very much support. >> a few minutes left with our guest larry sabato -- host: a few minutes left for our guests larry sabato. hi, rose. caller: i am so glad to get on to talk with you. i have issues if i could take a little time. it is called the koch brothers issues. there was a national geographic documentary and i am quoting a lot of it, where they were born and raised in russia and they inherited a lot of money and they are actually communists. so all the republican party kind of liens on their side. money is not given away -- some people just give money away or they loan it to you, but if you are going to give money for a republican to win, to buy a governor or a president, there is something you want back. all of these republicans better take in mind that they could be voting for a communist wh
if virginia turns out to be 10,000 votes between romney and obama and virgil goode its 25,000 votes, you could make the argument he might have cost mitt romney the state. but otherwise i doubt it. and there is a liberal candidate, jill stein, the green party candidate. i doubt she gets a very much support. >> a few minutes left with our guest larry sabato -- host: a few minutes left for our guests larry sabato. hi, rose. caller: i am so glad to get on to talk with you. i have issues if i...
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Nov 4, 2012
11/12
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this is the first time in our polling that we've seen romney with a double digit lead over obama. that would be a huge turn arn if the numbers held, a 20-point net turn around from the election in 2008. >> paul: okay, if that's true, and i agree with you the polls are showing that movement of independents to romney, if that's right and a big switch from 2008, why doesn't romney have a more comfortable lead at least 2 or 3 points in these polls? >> 90% of the disagreement in the polls right now, paul, involves differing assumptions about the makeup of the electorate. if we have an electorate that looks like 2004, with equal numbers of democrats and republicans turning out, then a double digit lead for romney among independents means he wins comfortably. >> paul: right. >> on the other hand if we have an electorate that looks like 2008 with 7 percentage points more democrats than republicans in the electorate, then that's probably enough to save obama, even if he loses independents by a dozen points. >> well, where-- >> it's all in the makeup. >> paul: where do you think the recogni
this is the first time in our polling that we've seen romney with a double digit lead over obama. that would be a huge turn arn if the numbers held, a 20-point net turn around from the election in 2008. >> paul: okay, if that's true, and i agree with you the polls are showing that movement of independents to romney, if that's right and a big switch from 2008, why doesn't romney have a more comfortable lead at least 2 or 3 points in these polls? >> 90% of the disagreement in the...
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Oct 27, 2012
10/12
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and these tight swing state polls you see no lift at all in the obama camp pain, -- campaign. >> here's the argue. they make. he is still ahead in ohio and wisconsin, still ahead in what they call their fire wall. and even if you give romney all the swing states that they think they're going to win -- virginia, north carolina, florida -- that still only gets him to 248. throw the colorado, 257 electoral votes, needs 2 70 to win. >> couple things about the firewall. you have to question, is obama really ahead in ohio when everyone seems to acknowledge romney's big advantage among independents? this is true of a bunch of swing states. there's a question about who is really ahead. but the other issue is, this is a well-known incumbent late in the race. he is probably persuaded most of the people he is going persuade and his campaign speeches are telling you that. it's a fiercely partisan ideological message he is driving. he is not talking to independents. >> let's get a clip of that. we want to give you an illustration of what james just pointed out. >> not a five point plan by governor r
and these tight swing state polls you see no lift at all in the obama camp pain, -- campaign. >> here's the argue. they make. he is still ahead in ohio and wisconsin, still ahead in what they call their fire wall. and even if you give romney all the swing states that they think they're going to win -- virginia, north carolina, florida -- that still only gets him to 248. throw the colorado, 257 electoral votes, needs 2 70 to win. >> couple things about the firewall. you have to...
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Nov 4, 2012
11/12
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WBAL
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you, yourself, have said polls are subjective and you were an obama supporter in 2008. >>. >> i try to provide scientific objectivity and looking at it as a mathematician, and someone who has a good track record in baseball, poker and other fields. i think journalistic objectivity is where you recycle talking points from both campaigns. maybe people people in that field have problem understanding we are looking at history, math and data to guide our view of the race and we are telling you we might be wrong. we are telling you the odds we will be wrong and we have a good track record. if you have an approach, looking at data in an objective way, like an investor watching this show might it is the same way we do it. it is more objective in some ways to spit ball feels to say i feel like it will be a close election, or i feel romney may come back rather than looking at what the voters say in the polls. >> good to have you on the program. see you soon. >> thank you. >>> up next on the "wall street journal report," in the dark but not totally disconnected. how associate media kept many info
you, yourself, have said polls are subjective and you were an obama supporter in 2008. >>. >> i try to provide scientific objectivity and looking at it as a mathematician, and someone who has a good track record in baseball, poker and other fields. i think journalistic objectivity is where you recycle talking points from both campaigns. maybe people people in that field have problem understanding we are looking at history, math and data to guide our view of the race and we are...
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Nov 4, 2012
11/12
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he's leading in most polls. and a lot of the polls are showing a democratic party identification edge in the respondants that is greater than the exit poll. and that just doesn't make sense to me and causes me to question them. we have problems with pollingly technology now because of so many cell phone only people there is it a lot of questioning going on in the polling profession. and i think we may see something like in 2004, which was quietly unreported by the press who don't mix in those stirkles saw evangelical voterss and maul town voters turn out much enhanced numbers that enable would george bush to carry the statine though kerry did a job of turning out the vote in central city neighborhoods and on areas. and i am picking romny to narrowly win. and i think we may like ken blackwell may wait until november 17th to see what happens to the provisional ballots this is it a provision that leaves me uneasy, but that's the direction i move in. >> michael, we'll be following closely and we may bring you back t
he's leading in most polls. and a lot of the polls are showing a democratic party identification edge in the respondants that is greater than the exit poll. and that just doesn't make sense to me and causes me to question them. we have problems with pollingly technology now because of so many cell phone only people there is it a lot of questioning going on in the polling profession. and i think we may see something like in 2004, which was quietly unreported by the press who don't mix in those...